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Wedbush Forecasts TSMC Q2 Revenue to Slightly Beat Expectations, Highlights 2nm Ramp
Wedbush analysts predict that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will report second‑quarter earnings that exceed consensus estimates by a modest margin. The research, released on July 15, 2026, points to a 1 % lift in top‑line revenue and a gross margin that sits near the middle of TSMC’s own guidance range.
Wedbush’s outlook is built on monthly revenue data that suggest the chipmaker’s sales have been running ahead of the 30‑plus‑percent growth rate it projected for the full year. The firm notes that the company’s revenue growth has already been in the high‑30% range year‑to‑date, and that the ramp‑up of the 2‑nanometer (2 nm) process in the second half of 2026 could sustain at least mid‑30% annual sales growth.
The 2 nm node, which entered volume production in late 2025, is a key driver of demand for high‑performance computing and artificial‑intelligence (AI) workloads. Wedbush expects the expansion of 2 nm capacity to support a stronger 2026 revenue outlook and to reduce the magnitude of the slowdown the firm models for 2027. The analysis also highlights that gross margins could face pressure in the latter part of the year because of the 2 nm launch and the company’s plans to expand overseas manufacturing.
Capital spending is another focus of the research. Wedbush notes that sustained demand for advanced nodes may prompt TSMC to raise its 2026 capital‑expenditure outlook. An increase in capex would reinforce the view that current 2027 revenue growth expectations are conservative. The firm’s guidance for the third quarter should provide clearer insight into how margin pressure and currency movements will affect profitability.
TSMC’s position in the global semiconductor supply chain underpins the analysis. The company controls roughly 70 % of the worldwide foundry market and supplies major customers such as Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, and Qualcomm. Wedbush cites TSMC’s advanced manufacturing and packaging capabilities as key beneficiaries of the ongoing AI data‑center build‑out and future edge‑AI opportunities in optics, robotics, automotive technology, and electronic design automation.
The research also references TSMC’s recent performance. In the first quarter of 2026, the company posted a gross margin of 66.2 % and an operating margin of 58.1 %, both above its own guidance ceiling. Those results helped the firm revise long‑term profitability targets upward for the first time in its history. The company’s share price, which has risen more than 37 % this year, closed at $417 on Wednesday afternoon.
While Wedbush’s analysis is optimistic, it acknowledges potential risks. The firm warns that margin pressure could materialize if the 2 nm ramp does not meet yield expectations or if the expanded overseas capacity dilutes utilization. Currency fluctuations could provide a partial offset, but the net impact remains uncertain.
In summary, Wedbush expects TSMC’s second‑quarter revenue to slightly exceed consensus estimates, with gross margins near the midpoint of the company’s guidance. The 2 nm ramp is projected to support a stronger full‑year outlook and to temper the slowdown forecast for 2027. Capital‑expenditure increases and margin dynamics will be clearer once TSMC releases its third‑quarter guidance.
The company’s next earnings announcement, scheduled for late July, will be closely watched by investors and analysts for confirmation of revenue growth, margin performance, and guidance adjustments. The outcome will also inform expectations for TSMC’s 2026 capital‑expenditure plans and its positioning in the AI and edge‑AI markets.
Wedbush’s outlook is built on monthly revenue data that suggest the chipmaker’s sales have been running ahead of the 30‑plus‑percent growth rate it projected for the full year. The firm notes that the company’s revenue growth has already been in the high‑30% range year‑to‑date, and that the ramp‑up of the 2‑nanometer (2 nm) process in the second half of 2026 could sustain at least mid‑30% annual sales growth.
The 2 nm node, which entered volume production in late 2025, is a key driver of demand for high‑performance computing and artificial‑intelligence (AI) workloads. Wedbush expects the expansion of 2 nm capacity to support a stronger 2026 revenue outlook and to reduce the magnitude of the slowdown the firm models for 2027. The analysis also highlights that gross margins could face pressure in the latter part of the year because of the 2 nm launch and the company’s plans to expand overseas manufacturing.
Capital spending is another focus of the research. Wedbush notes that sustained demand for advanced nodes may prompt TSMC to raise its 2026 capital‑expenditure outlook. An increase in capex would reinforce the view that current 2027 revenue growth expectations are conservative. The firm’s guidance for the third quarter should provide clearer insight into how margin pressure and currency movements will affect profitability.
TSMC’s position in the global semiconductor supply chain underpins the analysis. The company controls roughly 70 % of the worldwide foundry market and supplies major customers such as Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, and Qualcomm. Wedbush cites TSMC’s advanced manufacturing and packaging capabilities as key beneficiaries of the ongoing AI data‑center build‑out and future edge‑AI opportunities in optics, robotics, automotive technology, and electronic design automation.
The research also references TSMC’s recent performance. In the first quarter of 2026, the company posted a gross margin of 66.2 % and an operating margin of 58.1 %, both above its own guidance ceiling. Those results helped the firm revise long‑term profitability targets upward for the first time in its history. The company’s share price, which has risen more than 37 % this year, closed at $417 on Wednesday afternoon.
While Wedbush’s analysis is optimistic, it acknowledges potential risks. The firm warns that margin pressure could materialize if the 2 nm ramp does not meet yield expectations or if the expanded overseas capacity dilutes utilization. Currency fluctuations could provide a partial offset, but the net impact remains uncertain.
In summary, Wedbush expects TSMC’s second‑quarter revenue to slightly exceed consensus estimates, with gross margins near the midpoint of the company’s guidance. The 2 nm ramp is projected to support a stronger full‑year outlook and to temper the slowdown forecast for 2027. Capital‑expenditure increases and margin dynamics will be clearer once TSMC releases its third‑quarter guidance.
The company’s next earnings announcement, scheduled for late July, will be closely watched by investors and analysts for confirmation of revenue growth, margin performance, and guidance adjustments. The outcome will also inform expectations for TSMC’s 2026 capital‑expenditure plans and its positioning in the AI and edge‑AI markets.
